As the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran intensifies, questions arise about the fate of the country's largest minority: the Azerbaijanis. With Kurdish militant groups likely to receive Western backing and potentially use West Azerbaijan as a base for insurgency, Azerbaijanis may find themselves caught in a conflict not of their making and not to their benefit. Ethnic tensions, territorial disputes, and differing levels of militarization could turn a Kurdish uprising into a broader ethnic war—one that might draw in both Azerbaijan and Turkey, with preoccupying consequences for the region.

This article analyzes the evolution of relations between Italy and Azerbaijan from energy-driven cooperation to a multidimensional strategic partnership. It raises questions about how energy interdependence reshaped Italy’s role in the South Caucasus and how Azerbaijan’s diversification strategy underpins expanding engagement with a major EU and NATO member. The research first examines the diplomatic foundations that institutionalized bilateral dialogue and built political trust. It then explores energy cooperation - centered on the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) - as the structural backbone of the relationship, before assessing defense-industrial collaboration, particularly through cooperation with Leonardo S.p.A. and NATO interoperability initiatives. The article further considers reconstruction initiatives, technological integration, and public diplomacy, including the establishment of the joint Italy-Azerbaijan University. It argues that the partnership reflects a cumulative strategic logic in which energy created trust, which in turn enabled technological and security integration, reinforcing long-term alignment. Consequently, Italy-Azerbaijan relations exemplify how middle powers construct strategic depth through sectoral interdependence rather than formal block-style alliances.